Focus on USDJPY today – 1st OCT 2024 

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDJPY for OCT 1ST 2024. 

Key Takeaways 

• Powell disturbs the market: Fed Chairman Powell said in a speech yesterday that the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates, and the decision will be adjusted according to each meeting. If the economy develops as expected, there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, with a total of 50 basis points. This is far lower than the market’s expectation of 100 basis points. The US dollar index rose after Powell’s speech, hitting a new intraday high, and then gave up some of the gains, eventually closing 0.304% at 100.76. 

• Sluggish PMI in September: due to shrinking output and new orders, affected by weak economy and sluggish overseas demand. Japan’s final manufacturing PMI in September fell from 49.8 in August to 49.7 but rose slightly from the initial value of 49.6. The index was below the boom-bust watershed of 50.0 for the third consecutive month. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

(USDJPY Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• MACD: The momentum column is in an upward trend, but the exchange rate is still in a low-level oscillation stage, which suggests that the current long and short forces are in a game stage, and it is difficult to see a trend in a short time. 

• Key price: Based on the indicator prompts, investors need to pay attention to two key price levels to clarify the trend direction. The high point of the Pin bar, 146.525, is the high point of the band rebound, so it is the focus of bulls. At the same time, 141.767 is the long-short conversion line of the previous false breakthrough, so it is also the key support to prevent the exchange rate from falling further. 

H1 Chart Insights 

(USDJPY H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sent a short signal in the overbought area yesterday, suggesting that the short-term exchange rate may enter an adjustment. It is worth noting that the exchange rate continues to rise during the current Asian session, and it is necessary to be alert to the possibility of a divergence during the US session. 

• MA support: The MA group begins to flatten and is about to cross, sending a bullish signal. During the U.S. trading session yesterday, the exchange rate broke through the MA and then retreated. In theory, the exchange rate will continue to rise after breaking through the previous high. Therefore, investors should give priority to long trading opportunities during the Asian trading session today. 

Pivot Indicator 

(USDJPY M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP) 

• According to the Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 142.90, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 142.90, first target 143.95, second target 144.60; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 142.90, first target 142.40, second target 141.65. 

Conclusion 

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