On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar surged after the ADP National Employment Report revealed that U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in September, ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated jobs data. Private payrolls rose by 143,000 last month, following an upwardly revised increase of 103,000 in August, surpassing the forecasted 120,000 additions. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.39%, closing at 101.60, marking a three-week high. 

(U.S. Dollar Index Daily Price Chart, Source: TradingView) 

Stronger economic data, coupled with more hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday, has bolstered the dollar. This shift has led traders to scale back expectations of a 50-basis point rate cut by the U.S. central bank at its next meeting. There’s a subtle change in sentiment, with fewer concerns about aggressive rate cuts in the U.S. and an increasing focus on other regions. 

Additionally, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated on Wednesday that the 50-basis point cut last month was a recognition that the policy rate was misaligned with the current state of the economy, but it should not be viewed as a signal that the battle against inflation is over. Traders are now pricing in a 35% probability of a 50-basis point cut at the Fed’s November 6-7 meeting, down from 57% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. 

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