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U.S. Dollar Rises Despite Rate Cut Bets Amid Sticky Inflation Data
TOPICS
Inflation Remains Sticky, in Line with Expectations
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% for the fourth consecutive month, aligning with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll. Year-over-year, the CPI rose by 2.6% through October, up from 2.4% in September, also meeting forecasts. Following the report, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.49%, closing at 106.48.
(U.S. CPI y/y and Core CPI y/y Chart, Source: LSEG)
(DXY Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
The CPI data, especially the uptick in the 12-month rate, suggests that although the Fed is widely expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, persistently high inflation could prompt a reassessment of its pace of easing in 2025. Since September, the Fed has implemented a total of one percentage point in rate cuts.
After the release, traders’ bets indicated an 82% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in December, up from 58.7% on Monday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. While some Fed officials took a more cautious tone, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed confidence that inflation was on a downward trend, noting the CPI data aligns with this trajectory.
However, significant uncertainty persists, especially given potential policy changes post-election. The market is making many assumptions about future policy direction, yet it remains uncertain where things will stand over the next one to two years.
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